A Rolling Stone Gathers Pace as Well as a Green-back Kind of Moss

February 11, 2008 at 2:03 am (Uncategorized)

So… Obama took Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington state, but Clinton is confident about clinching Maine… will she do it? And if Maine falls in Obama’s favour, where will that leave Hils in her race for the Democratic nomination? Where?

It is so riveting (and what did I tell you? McCain has the Republican nomination sewn up). You can keep up to date with the latest results via this Washington Post blog, which today reports Clinton’s change of campaign manager. At such a crucial stage of the race, this seems a pretty risky move to me. It sends out wobbly foundation, lack of confidence vibes that smell of fear. Deep, deep fear. How public her defeat would be, and how crushing after all the years of work and sacrifice and fundwhoring, I mean fundraising. It gives me a little shudder and it’s not even my fight.

But Obama seems to be gaining momentum, and as those crash test dummies would attest if crash test dummies could speak, momentum has a tendency to blow everything else away in a million shattered fragments. Momentum can be devastating to everything else in its path, even a Clinton.

And here’s the other thing about the impact of momentum: don’t forget this is a numbers game first and foremost. And I am not talking about delegate and then voter numbers, I am talking about the softly rolling zeros required to get a candidate across the line. Obama’s wins in the post-Super Tuesday world mean that he’s going to need a bigger safe. Money will flow to his campaign. Money may be diverted from Hils if Obama emerges as the favourite. And although money may not buy happiness, it sure as shit buys the American people their candidates for the next President of the United States.

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2 Comments

  1. Steve said,

    Hi Di! thanks for the blog!

    RE Obama and momentum, you are right. Most of our friends (pretty liberal) have been on the fence one way or the other but are tending towards Obama more and more. Part of it is the inertia angle and recognition of its importance, but it seems to be equal parts, too, of this whole hope/change angle combined with the sense that he will bring out more new voters and independents than Hillary, while Hillary will bring out more arch-conservatives who would otherwise stay at home with McCain as their candidate. All of that said, it is a real heart breaker for many who think Hillary would actually be more able to get things done in the White House given her track record in the senate.

    It’s going to be interesting.

  2. doctordi said,

    Hi Steve! Awesome to have you weighing in from the US – I’m never sure if what’s reported in Australia is the same as what’s happening ringside over there! Yeah, I think it would be fairly hard for ‘pretty liberal’ Americans to discount the – though quite emotive, it must be said – argument about hope and change that Obama is making more and more persuasively as he gets his sound byte hours up. And I would expect a lot of those same hitherto-fence-sitting friends to also start thinking (and this is a point I made somewhere in an earlier blog) “Kinda weird, kinda creepy, to go Bush-Clinton-Clinton-Bush-Bush-Clinton” at the polls. It’s deeply counterintuitive to me, at least, although despite the War of Independence, Americans do seem to love the idea of nurturing monarchy-style political dynasties.

    I think Hillary would be effective, and she’s a woman, so I can’t help but feel torn. In a way it’s a real shame they are running against each other. Any chance they’ll share the President/Vice ticket? Llew says absolutely no way. I think it could be a seismic combo but possibly disastrous in terms of spilling conservative types into McCain’s basket. It’s going to be very interesting indeed.

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